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| Ryan McCorvie |
This is a really interesting news article from Ryan McCorvie regarding Covid-19 modeling.
During the past six years statistician Ryan McCorvie, has been researching random processes with cascades, crashes or contagion. McCorvie came to disease modeling in a rather circuitous route — before pursuing his Ph.D. in statistics his background was in finance.“It turns out that some of the same techniques used to calibrate forecasts for currency exchange rates can also be applied when you are trying to forecast ICU bed demand,” according to McCorvie. “There are general statistical principles which apply to many situations.”
One of the first goals in epidemiology is to gather the basic data about the disease, such as the number of cases, demographic data about those afflicted, and the amount of testing being done. Modeling takes the next step, integrating the raw data with mathematical models to gain additional insights. Models outputs have been featured prominently in policy discussions, such as Trump’s Coronavirus Task Force briefing which incorporated projections from the University of Washington’s IHME group.
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